Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 19.969167 24.061785 28.579264 33.908419 39.994869 46.701023 54.619332
2025-07-13 14.406636 19.846439 26.471007 35.010439 45.595864 58.152502 74.028070
2025-07-20 11.221562 17.208304 25.079641 35.921422 50.175718 67.972971 91.533572
2025-07-27 9.207896 15.495608 24.317587 37.147053 54.823379 77.787024 109.266016
2025-08-03 7.661479 14.053761 23.567967 38.083851 58.906771 86.879103 126.348192
2025-08-10 6.128153 12.283671 22.007761 37.559073 60.747470 92.894917 139.486587
2025-08-17 5.128120 11.155516 21.204296 37.956044 63.783004 100.559273 155.068284
2025-08-24 4.225545 9.995728 20.150902 37.783754 65.857424 106.859397 168.920985
2025-08-31 3.324864 8.628860 18.527357 36.470435 66.006058 110.274308 178.713910
2025-09-07 2.857992 8.017637 18.122997 37.086472 69.134776 118.148076 195.171458
2025-09-14 2.299531 7.070952 16.951990 36.234591 69.790275 122.257981 206.186677
2025-09-21 2.020171 6.692369 16.807060 37.156981 73.374442 130.963138 224.320937
2025-09-28 1.479055 5.547530 15.014949 35.008547 71.861948 131.998520 231.492821
2025-10-05 1.282773 5.255044 14.972599 36.177490 76.183971 142.582035 253.897053
2025-10-12 1.100954 4.942237 14.828363 37.115087 80.133161 152.714194 275.953622
2025-10-19 0.964244 4.719857 14.850195 38.372912 84.714811 164.054539 300.290186
2025-10-26 0.832053 4.462306 14.740861 39.334036 88.786796 174.688425 323.832083
2025-11-02 0.658120 3.976854 13.971389 38.795655 89.984941 180.485281 339.727483
2025-11-09 0.549527 3.688918 13.656643 39.202921 92.988649 189.462838 361.071372
2025-11-16 0.441534 3.343101 13.113840 39.026165 94.817411 196.441243 379.302035
2025-11-23 0.325397 2.876996 12.121567 37.678667 94.198914 199.044798 390.272835
2025-11-30 0.273884 2.705021 11.969478 38.310768 97.614102 208.954253 413.836257
2025-12-07 0.205000 2.374202 11.241641 37.436659 97.841979 213.083473 427.649549